Today 5 April 2020, Sunday - Last updated at ora 20:44
Abonamente

News 21 January 2020, at 12:55

Revisiting the Ukraine- Russia- EU triangular dynamics

Marime Font

 With the narrative that floats around, one is tempted to think that the Ukraine crisis is all about Crimea; that it started and ended there. So what about the internal oblasts like Odessa, Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk (the South- Eastern regions) where a protracted conflict broke out? Are they not part of the resolution to the Ukraine crisis? But before any party decides on how to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, it is crucial to understand what needs to be resolved.

 What needs to be Resolved?

First, the negotiating status. Formal peace talks began with the Minsk-I ceasefire in September 2014 but Kyiv refused to engage with rebels as negotiation partners, even while Kyiv’s negotiators had no official status, proceeding to brand rebels as ‘terrorists’ (Matveeva, 2018, p. 260). For as long as the insurgents are not considered cohorts in negotiating a peace deal and power sharing arrangements, the Ukraine crisis will not resolve. Second, the political fate of the insurgent territory. At the crisis’s outset, Donbas seemed to concord with Russia about the federalization idea (Davies, 2016, p. 737), but as the conflict progressed, rebels’ aspirations were geared either towards complete independence or irredentism with Russia – the former, Ukraine would never give, and the latter, Russia did not want. The ‘Special Status’ option running into a political impasse coupled with Ukrainian civil activist efforts against Minsk agreements meant that the crisis was not ripe for peace from Kyiv’s side. On the split side, the Donbas rebels’ dissatisfaction with Moscow and Kyiv for neglecting rebel wishes also meant that the crisis was not ready to be resolved from their side either. All parties were dissatisfied with the outcomes. It is not wrong therefore to say that Ukrainian nationalism and monist identity approach was only becoming stronger with rebels’ resistance to Kyiv’s biddings. Thus, for as long as the rebels are not awarded some sort of autonomy or freedom to live their “Russianness,” the crisis will not be resolved. At the same time, for as long as the rebels are firm on irredentist motives instead of attributing some form of loyalty to Kyiv, the SE-Ukraine crisis will prolong and cannot be resolved. It goes without saying that the resolution needs to be political, not military. As with any conflict, ceasefires are only temporary arrangements for until a greater political plan is formed. As the many (failed) ceasefire attempts indicate, Ukraine needs to seriously determine a political solution for the conflict to truly stop.

Ukraine Crisis and European Security

No matter how the Ukraine crisis is resolved, some things from the crisis serve as important notes for European security. First, the Donbas conflict is a strong reminder that for regional stability and order, it is necessary to devote attention to grassroots rebellions instead of single-mindedly fantasizing over the “all-Putin” narrative. Crimea was the tip of the iceberg; it is possible that such dormant grassroots rebellions could foment and induce a regional domino effect throwing the fragile balance off the continent. Second, it is unreasonable to take insurgent groups’ military organization and political aspirations for granted. Within Ukraine, rebels have showed the skill and experience needed to spontaneously mobilize and acquire modern warfare methods, which means, that such revolutions can very much happen despite state defense methods. Was (is) Ukraine prepared for this? Are Kyiv’s European friends prepared for this? Furthermore, when grievances are addressed in the form of violent conflict, a pro-war culture unites people with similar ideologies. How can Europe stop European fighters from fighting in Donbas? The moment that a cultural war becomes war-culture is indeed tricky – so Europe needs to take into account the strength of identities, symbols, and beliefs, and how that can affect the fragile security in the region, instead of brewing the ‘Russia-orchestrates-all’ beverage. Lastly, with whatever political resolution that Ukraine comes up with, European security and stability is only possible with Russia’s cooperation. Antagonizing Russia will not help integrate pro-Russian factions within pro-West states like Ukraine. This would mean not only cooperating with Russia for further regional stability, but also not isolating it. Russia’s past attempts of halting the Novorossiya project in Donbas, postponing elections in rebel territories, enthusiasm for peace prospects including suggesting UN peacekeeping troops cannot be simply rewarded with more economic sanctions. That defeats good faith from Russia. This causes Russia to turn away from cooperation with the EU, and with it, induce its pro-Russian supporters (scattered all over the FSU) to imitate the same.

Loading...


Ukraine Crisis and Russian Security

If a political-military resolution is found to end the Ukraine crisis, it has some implications on Russian security too. First, Russia needs to be prepared for calls to the ‘Russian World.’ A population who was driven to go to war because they had faith Russia would repeat Crimea means that such dormant attitudes maybe present within other FSU populations. Matveeva (2018, 286) states that “Russia does not have a universalist approach to regional conflicts,” and Donbas is a clear example of that. Whatever the resolution is agreed upon for Ukraine, a big question that looms over Russian security is about how it would take care of regional military confrontations. Russia uses a bilateral and multilateral approach in order to bind states into a regional order, but the aspect about a military confrontation remains unanswered (Slobodchikoff 2014). Whether we look at CIS or some other multilateral organization, there needs to be some forum which either addresses collective security operations (actual military confrontations) or allows Russia to intervene as necessary. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has been a good tool for Russia in integrating Eurasia against external threats (Hansen 2013), but has Russia seriously considered civil and transnational (internal) conflicts which can turn into full-blown civil wars if allowed? Even if Russia finds it pointless to entertain civil skirmishes like the one in Donbas, how can it ignore the fundamental drive – Novorossiya– which served as the rebels’ motivational catalyst? All this indicates that Russian security is invariably a matter of regional stability, very much taking into account Ukraine. So, it is only in Russian security interests to mollify such uprisings using support from mainland governments and/or a multilateral security architecture, thereby standardizing its approach to such regional hostilities. Unless, of course, it is Russia’s wish to stay mysterious with its security approach. If that be so, such an approach does not bode well for regional security. Secondly, for any sort of crisis resolution to sustain, Russia will have to understand Kyiv’s perspective. Although it has to rush to aid its Russian World when she summons her, Moscow cannot overplay this cultural dimension so much as to explicitly challenge the West and thereby feed into the Western normative discourse. Ukraine will be more than unwilling to make any more concessions past Crimea, so Donbas’s resolution (when it happens), would require sacrifices on both fronts and acknowledgment of bitter history.

Of course rebels in Donbas or Kyiv, the governments in Moscow and Kyiv, as also the wider continents of Europe and America would appreciate a true peace, but ‘peace’ cannot be viewed as an absolute dichotomy: either my way or the highway. A ceasefire may bring about a transient military resolution, but without a political one unanimously agreed by involved parties, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian crisis will end in spirit.

In order to avoid such future conflicts, both Russia and Europe must understand how overlooked conflicts such as those in Donbas have security implications for both of them. For Russia, it means acknowledging the dormant (but very potent) society within the Russian World, as also Russia’s obligation as leader of that world – and while doing all of this, maintaining a delicate balance between itself and the West. For Europe it means acknowledging indigenous uprisings, giving due value to cultural enthusiasm uncontaminated by political conspiracies that feed in the all-Putin perspective, and faithfully cooperating with Moscow to attain regional stability.

So as we see, there is much theoretical resolution to the Ukraine crisis and how that will affect Russian and European securities, but practically, one has to wait to see. As Matveeva (2018,298) writes, “we can only hope humanity survived in those who went through it,” to which it would do well to add: I hope some foresight and rationality is present in those who are to resolve it.

Tanvi Chauhan
Global studies scholar from the US-based Troy University. âShe is specialist on the MENA and Eurasia politico-military and security theaters.

 Urmărește știrile Timpul.md pe Telegram
loading...
Loading...
blog comments powered by Disqus

Din aceeaşi secţiune

Cele mai noi ştiri de azi

News 5 April 2020, at: 16:20

The novel coronavirus is most active at temperatures around four degrees above zero Celsius and gets much weaker at high temperatures, Hong Kong University scientists have found.

( ) Read all

News 5 April 2020, at: 10:48

The mother says she and her husband Vinay embraced the names after hospital staff started using them for the children.

( ) Read all

News 2 April 2020, at: 17:03

 The UK death toll for coronavirus has risen to 2,921 – up by 569 from the day before.

( ) Read all

News 2 April 2020, at: 08:06

 The governor of Connecticut delivered heart-breaking news about the COVID-19 pandemic and said an infant girl here in the state died of coronavirus.

( ) Read all

News 1 April 2020, at: 15:34

Spain has recorded another 864 deaths related to coronavirus, the highest in one day, as the total number of deaths across Europe has gone beyond 30,000. More than 9,000 people have died in Spain, which is second only to Italy in fatalities caused by the virus. Confirmed cases in the country...

( ) Read all

News 1 April 2020, at: 15:32

A 13-year-old boy who tested positive for coronavirus has died, a London hospital trust has said. Ismail Mohamed Abdulwahab, from Brixton in south London, died in King's College Hospital early on Monday. He is thought to be the youngest person to have died with the virus in the UK.

( ) Read all

News 31 March 2020, ora: 20:31

The Independent Turkmenistan bans the word ‘coronavirus’ and wearing of masks

Turkmenistan bans the word ‘coronavirus’ and wearing of masks

 Turkmenistan’s government has reportedly banned the word “coronavirus” from being used by local media or health information brochures while denying the disease’s presence in the country.

( ) Read all

News 31 March 2020, at: 07:51

 German Chancellor Angela Merkel tested negative for the coronavirus for the third time, a German government spokesman said in an emailed statement on Monday evening.

( ) Read all

News 27 March 2020, at: 14:29

Media captionIn a video on Twitter, Boris Johnson says he is self-isolating and will continue to work from home. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for coronavirus.

( ) Read all

News 27 March 2020, at: 14:24

Specialist sniffer dogs are to be tested to see if they can detect coronavirus.

( ) Read all

News 26 March 2020, at: 17:16

London (CNN Business) Dyson has received an order from the UK government for 10,000 ventilators to support efforts by the country's National Health Service to treat coronavirus patients.

( ) Read all

News 26 March 2020, at: 15:07

Romanian writer Paul Goma, known as a leading opponent of the communist regime in the country, passed away in Paris after contracting the Covid-19 infection.

( ) Read all

News 24 March 2020, at: 20:46

India is to impose a nationwide lockdown in an attempt to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced.

( ) Read all

News 24 March 2020, at: 18:16

An elderly Catholic priest reportedly died from the COVID-19 coronavirus after refusing a ventilator so that a younger patient could use it instead. Don Giuseppe Berardelli, 72, died March 15 at a hospital in Lovere, Italy after declining to use the medical equipment that his parishioners were...

( ) Read all

News 24 March 2020, at: 13:56

The African saxophone legend Manu Dibango has died in Paris after catching coronavirus. Dibango – best known for his 1972 song Soul Makossa – is one of the first global stars to die from Covid-19. The 86-year-old fused jazz and funk music with traditional sounds from his home...

( ) Read all

News 24 March 2020, at: 13:47

The lockdown in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the global coronavirus outbreak began, will be partially lifted on 8 April, officials say. Travel restrictions in the rest of Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, will be lifted from midnight on Tuesday - for residents who are healthy. A...

( ) Read all

News 23 March 2020, at: 17:19

A prankster is facing up to five years in prison for causing panic on the Moscow underground. That’s the high price he may yet pay for an ill-conceived attempt to turn Chinese coronavirus hysteria into online likes. A young man in a black tracksuit and a face mask was walking along the...

( ) Read all

News 23 March 2020, at: 17:19

A joint petition signed by several NGOs has protested over the government’s poor communications and restricted information about the scale of the coronavirus crisis in Moldova.

( ) Read all

News 23 March 2020, at: 15:37

On 20 March 2020, through a written procedure replacing the 122th Plenary Session of the Venice Commission due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Venice Commission adopted a joint opinion, together with the Council of Europe’s Directorate of Human Rights on draft constitutional amendments...

( ) Read all

News 20 March 2020, at: 09:04

Coronavirus has killed more people in Italy than in any other country, after deaths there rose by 427 in a day. The number of deaths now stands at 3,405, which is more than in China where the virus originated last year. There have been 3,245 reported deaths in China, but there have been...

( ) Read all

News 19 March 2020, at: 19:35

„PANIC ATTACK”: a collection about personality disorders and their integration into society

„PANIC ATTACK”: a collection about personality disorders and their integration into society

“My name is Lilya Moraru. I am 29 years old and I am a fashion designer from Republic of Moldova. „PANIC ATTACK” is the motto of a collection about personality disorders and their integration into society. Of the myriad of mental health problems, panic attacks are the most...

( ) Read all

News 19 March 2020, at: 13:14

The psychology of success and wealth, the power of capitalism.

( ) Read all

News 19 March 2020, at: 08:08

Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters.

( ) Read all

News 19 March 2020, at: 06:52

The number of people dying from coronavirus in Italy has risen by 475 in one day to nearly 3,000 - the biggest increase since the outbreak. There are a total of 35,713 confirmed cases in the country, with more than 4,000 having successfully recovered. Lombardy, the worst-hit region,...

( ) Read all

News 19 March 2020, at: 06:10

  With hundreds of millions of people now isolating themselves around the world, the novel coronavirus pandemic has become a truly global event. And while its geopolitical implications should be considered secondary to matters of health and safety, those implications may, in the long term,...

( ) Read all

News 18 March 2020, at: 17:16

The Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) and the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) formed a majority in the Parliament of Moldova. It was unexpected, since the two parties were considered antagonists, if not totally, then at least in matters of the country's foreign policy....

( ) Read all

News 18 March 2020, at: 13:59

 Russian pro-Kremlin media have mounted a “significant disinformation campaign” to aggravate the coronavirus pandemic crisis in western countries by destroying confidence in the emergency response, according to an internal EU report. 

( ) Read all
Current tier / breakpoint: xs sm md lg xl (= visible only on this breakpoint)

.hidden-xs-down .hidden-sm-down .hidden-md-down .hidden-lg-down

.hidden-xs-up .hidden-sm-up .hidden-md-up .hidden-lg-up .hidden-xl

.hidden-xs (only) .hidden-sm (only) .hidden-md (only) .hidden-lg (only) .hidden-xl (only)